Bill James' projections on Marlins

If you’re looking for a sleeper to emerge and be a big contributor for the 2010 Marlins, keep an eye on Gaby Sanchez.

Author and baseball stats expert Bill James certainly is.

In the recently-released Bill James Handbook 2010, Sanchez is projected to have a strong season.

“In any season, the vast majority of players play in a manner that seems a natural extension of what they had done before,” James said in the book. “When that happens, our projection should be reasonably accurate.”

Sanchez played mostly first base at Triple-A New Orleans this year, and he finished with a .289 batting average with 16 home runs and 56 RBIs. He appeared in 21 games with the Marlins, and had 21 at-bats with two home runs.

If the Marlins don’t bring back Nick Johnson and Jorge Cantu, that would be a sign they are leaning toward either Sanchez or left-handed hitting Logan Morrison to win the first base job.

In James’ book, he projects these numbers for Sanchez: .279 batting average, with 15 home runs and 59 RBIs.

James also has some forecasts for a few other Marlins. Here are some other projections:

* Hanley Ramirez: .315 average, 27 home runs, 86 RBIs, 117 runs scored, 31 stolen bases, .926 OPS
* Chris Coghlan: .310 average, 10 HRs, 66 RBIs, 92 runs, 20 steals, .840 OPS
* Dan Uggla: .252 average, 30 HRs, 90 RBIs, 97 runs, three steals, .815 OPS
* Cody Ross: .269 average, 23 HRs, 80 RBIs, 70 runs, five steals, .801 OPS

— Joe Frisaro


great south florida sports blog

great south florida sports blog

The Bill James projection for Hanley is puzzling. 86 RBI and 117 runs. From a No. 3 hitter? He’ll probably be walked more often with runners in scoring position, but that much?
The Chris Coghlan Nick Johnson combo worked well. Hasn’t anyone noticed Logan Morrison having a very Nick Johnson season at Jacksonville? IF he’s ready for the Majors he could have a very productine time in between Chris and Hanley. Yes I know, that’s a very big IF.

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